← Fyendal Hobby Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Fyendal Hobby Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.8% | -5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.9% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.9% | -10.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.1% | +3.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.4% | +11.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Reduce to Ash, Under Fire. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Smoke Out.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |